Long overdue rapid transit service from Washington DC to Dulles airport is now under construction. The Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project, known as the Silver Line, may seem like it was an obvious choice as a way to improve the region's public transportation. Construction began in March 2009, and service is expected to begin by 2013. As those who have used bus service from the DC area to the airport can attest, the current system — a regular city bus equipped with luggage racks — is inadequate. The buses are low capacity, and are not designed for highway driving.
While rail might seem like the most obvious solution, it is also by far the most expensive and slowest option. The price tag is staggering, and the rail extension will take years to construct. The better option would have been to make use of the existing roadways, and implement an expansive bus rapid transit system (BRT).
The 23 mile extension of the Washington Metro rapid transit system is forecast to cost $6.8 billion dollars; roughly $296 million per mile. The constant scramble to finance the over-budget project has resulted in more than one construction setback.
In contrast, consider how a BRT system could have worked, and what it would have cost. One lane in each direction on the Dulles Toll Road could have been designated as a high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane, to ensure that buses could move relatively quickly. The average cost of implementing a BRT system running on an HOV lane is $8.97 million per mile (in 1999 dollars), which would have brought the cost to roughly $230 million. It should be noted that this average is heavily skewed by one costly project; two million to five million dollars per mile is more typical, which would make the final cost in DC between $52 million and $130 million.
The buses themselves would have had to be fully articulating — the kind that bend in the middle, also known as accordion buses — with overhead luggage compartments, and a capacity of roughly 87 passengers. They would likely cost somewhere between $750,000 and $1.68 million.
The overwhelming likelihood is that busses to Dulles would cost near the low end of the price range. The high end is based on the cost of buses used in Boston for their Silver Line BRT system to Logan Airport, where dual fuel electric/natural gas buses are used; these buses run underground, where they cannot burn gas, as well as on surface streets where there aren't any overhead electric lines.
The cost per passenger trip is likely to be lower for rail than for BRT, because of rail's higher capacity per vehicle; the train will transport about 175 passengers per car. Despite this, the lower per passenger operating cost doesn’t come anywhere near making up for the massive capital cost. The interest alone on the $6.8 million dollar loan would equal $1,067,317 per day (amortized over 30 years at a 4% interest rate). This doesn’t factor in the cost of the principle, or the operating cost.
Even after spending $6.8 billion, only about 10% of travelers to Dulles are likely to arrive by public transportation, according to projections by the Airport Authority. Compare that to 16% for Reagan , which is right in the city (Dulles is more than 25 miles outside of DC's central business district. This highlights another advantage of BRT: modularity. Instead of all or nothing, BRT can be gradually introduced, and levels of service can be adjusted to meet demand.
While access to Dulles isn’t the full justification for the Silver Line, it’s hard to imagine the rail extension ever paying for itself. At the end of the day, cost is the number one issue, and BRT wins hands down.
Steve Lafleur is a Policy Analyst with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
Photo: Metrorail Construction; truss erecting span at I-459 and Rte 123
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. Compare that to 16% for
. Compare that to 16% for Reagan , which is right in the city (Dulles is more than 25 miles outside of DC's central business district. This highlights another advantage of BRT: modularity. Instead of all or nothing, BRT can be gradually introduced, and levels of service can be adjusted to meet demand. http://www.vpnmag.es/
Thanks for sharing
Thanks
Great sharing
thanks for your reply
there is not much traffic. But it's not so popular because it requires a switch, and people with suitcases don't like to do that right here. On the flip side, the Metro stop at Reagan Airport is easily the most convenient rail/air connection point in the whole country
Dublin Airport Taxi
One benefit of using taxis is that they're easily available. Once can find tons of taxis in the airport parking lot. And negotiating on price isn't a problem either. With so many taxis around, the drivers make sure they quote a reasonable price to the customer so that the customer doesn't look for other taxi cabs.
Dublin Airport Taxi
I-66 and Dulles Corridor Commutes
Hi Steve, I read your article with great interest, but with an appreciation for having escaped from the DC area about a decade ago. When I got stationed in the Pentagon in 1993 and bought a home in Chantilly, I took a bus that stopped around the block from my home to Vienna, then took the Metro, switching in Roslyn to the Blue and into the Pentagon. It took about 50-55 minutes and, as I recall, cost about $8 perday (this was before the federal government began offsetting the costs for govies, which I think has only exacerbating Metro crowding, while apparently doing little to alleviate traffic). I joined a carpool leaving from near the Rt 50 and Fairfax Cty Pkwy. It took us about 35 minutes and we usually had one person driving each week, thus spread out where that person didn't drive again for three more weeks.
I watched as the traffic got worse and the commute got longer. We all in the carpool talked about possible solutions, such as years before the Orange Line should've been extended to Manassas, an Inner-County Connector going across the Potomac from the FFx Cty Pkwy into Maryland, etc. We also wondered why a high speed rail to Dulles hadn't been planned years before to keep more traffic off the roads.
Your assertion of BRT as a solution, while fiscally sound, would not work in northern VA simply due to the overwhelming amount of traffic there now. Putting more articulating buses on the massively overcrowded roads merely increases the traffic problems. Building more lanes is not an option along the Dulles Toll Road, I-66 or FFx Cty Pkwy unless Emminent Domain is used - something I disagree with in this case.
So, in this long-winded response, I'll admit, I don't know of a better solution other than the Silver Line. It doesn't do much, but perhaps use the Dulles Access road for HOV only lanes (and taxis, buses) with HOV exits for major intersections. I'm not sure how much traffic it would remove from the Dulles Toll Road though.
you answer your own question
A well written piece. While of course BRT is cheaper than rail, you acknowledge in the final paragraph that the Silver Line is not all about Dulles. Rather, the Silver Line will make several stops in Tysons Corner, which is one of the biggest business destinations in the DC region. A train from downtown to Tysons, Reston, and Dulles is a seamless one-seat ride that BRT could never provide. (And yes, lots of people live and work in downtown DC, to say nothing of the entire federal government).
There is already a form of BRT to Dulles - the shuttle bus that connects Dulles to the West Falls Church metro station. It is plenty "rapid" - makes no stops, and there is not much traffic. But it's not so popular because it requires a switch, and people with suitcases don't like to do that. On the flip side, the Metro stop at Reagan Airport is easily the most convenient rail/air connection point in the whole country. I have no data to confirm this, but I would assume almost as many people (traveling to Metro-accessible areas) take Metro to Reagan than they do taxis.
Further, the Dulles/Tysons area is the region's biggest growth corridor. Rail transit has the effect of attracting residential and commercial development adjacent to stops, and raising property values, and taking even more commuters off the road. BRT would not accomplish this.
I agree that BRT is more economically efficient in principle, but for the unique circumstances of DC, Dulles Airport, and Tysons Corner, rail definitely makes sense. The Silver Line fills a large gaping hole in the DC Metro map, which will in turn attract more ridership to all points in the Metro system.
Two quick points
Hi Jay,
Thanks for the feedback. One of the troubles with the DC Metro is that it functions almost like a hybrid of a subway and commuter rail system. It is so sprawled out that they have a difficult time servicing the inner city with a reasonable frequency. That's why it often takes over 45 minutes to get a train in Balston. It's good that they have zone pricing, but the increments are too small. Given the ridership projections for the Silver Line, it could potentially recoup the interest costs (though not the principle or operating costs) if the fee for commuting from Dulles to Metro Center was set to around $8-$10, given that much of the projected ridership will be bus riders switching to Metro. That sounds like a steep fare, but is not out of line with commuter rail prices. But, again, that still wouldn't cover the cost of the principle or operating costs.
With respect to transit oriented development, the differential effects of BRT and Subways are not necessarily as big as some suggest. There are few true BRT systems in America to use as a basis for comparison, but the Cleveland Healthline has brought in $4 billion in local investment on a $300 million dollar BRT line. Even if the TOD effect of BRT isn't as high per dollar, the significant savings from building BRT could have been applied to other types of public investments.