Who Are the Winners and Losers from the U.S. Election?

Donald Trump has now captured the presidency for a second time, while the Republican Party has taken back the Senate and looks on course to win the House of Representatives. Beyond these headlines, though, there may be many more beneficiaries of a Trump victory — and plenty of casualties, too.

Winners

1. The fossil fuel industry. Under Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress, the now-thriving lords of oil and gas would have been facing a death sentence. Now, the Senate is sure to block any radical green policies, and perhaps the House as well. Given weakness in the marketplace and Republican hostility, green investors may have to find another line of work or move to Canada.
2. Red states. Their power will inevitably grow as jobs and people move there, notably to the South. There’s no chance that the high-tax states will gain back their émigrés, while policies encouraging manufacturing are likely to remain confined to the Sun Belt. This is manna from heaven for the growing coterie of young people in skilled trades, who may be the biggest winners of all, even as their professional rivals struggle. This election may also be a relief to communities on the US-Mexico border after Joe Biden’s administration failed to get a handle on immigration. Even Harris ended up calling for a border wall, and Trump now has the votes to make it happen.
3. Space travel and the military-industrial complex. By embracing tech mogul Elon Musk, the President-elect and his party have shown their openness to a new libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley. As SpaceX and much of the industry relocates largely to Florida and Texas, the Republicans will have many reasons to back more space spending. Similarly, the new wave of defence companies, such as Palantir and Anduril, can expect bigger contracts as the US rearms.
4. US-Israel relations. The Democrats have made a point of criticising Israel’s government, its leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and its military strategy. There is growing evidence of Iranian espionage influence in prominent DC circles which will stop with Trump. Yet while Israel may be happy with Trump’s return, so too might Russian President Vladimir Putin: cue the rekindling bromance.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.