In the center of the American Sun Belt lies the eighth-largest economy in the world, home to nearly one out of 10 Americans. After decades of sustained economic and population growth, Texas is in the early days of a demographic shift that will profoundly shape its future. As states and countries around the globe grapple with declining populations, Texas is defying the trend by continuing to expand. Such growth is likely to continue. While it will bring many benefits, however, a more populous Texas will also present challenges – challenges that must be addressed if the state hopes to secure the future of its residents and avoid the fate of other regions that were unprepared for the growth they experienced.
Bigger and better?
By the time Texas, home to 30 million people, celebrates its bicentennial in 2036, projections developed by the Texas Demographic Center indicate that the state will have between 3 million and 5 million more residents than it does today. By 2060, Texas will have 6 million to 14 million more inhabitants. This growth – and the declines facing many other states – mean Texas is on track to become the most populous state in the country by the turn of the next century, if not sooner.
Texas also has a young population. With a median age of 35, Texas was the second-youngest state in the nation in 2023, trailing only Utah, which has a median age of almost 32 years old. This puts it in stark contrast to, say, Maine – the oldest state in the nation, which has a median age just shy of 45 years old.
In the past, population growth in Texas was driven by a high fertility rate, which also kept the median age low relative to other states. Fertility in Texas has declined over the last two decades, however, and is now below the rate needed to maintain population size. And yet Texas has continued growing thanks to domestic migration from other states. A large percentage of these migrants have been younger adults attracted by an affordable cost of living and abundant employment opportunities. These people have not only helped the state grow; they have also kept it relatively young.
As Texas’ population continues to expand, however, an interesting dichotomy will form as the median age shifts older. Texas is relatively young compared with other states because of historically higher fertility and current in-migration by young adults. But like all states and the rest of the developed world, Texas is on a trajectory to grow older over time because of the large cohort of aging baby boomers and because of medical and health advances contributing to greater longevity, coupled with lower fertility rates. According to projections by the Texas Demographic Center, between 2023 and 2050, the number of Texans 65 and older will increase by more than 88%, while the number of Texans 45 to 64 is expected to increase by 57%. Although some regions of the state, particularly rural areas, have already begun experiencing this shift in significant ways, many have not. But that will soon change.
Texas, as the second-largest state by land mass, offers new residents substantial space to settle. The state’s population growth has been far from evenly distributed, however. The “Texas Triangle,” as the urban and suburban areas of metro Austin-San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston are known, account for 87% of the state population today, and the exurbs surrounding these metro areas have enjoyed most of the recent growth. Between 2010 and 2020, 37 of Texas’ 254 counties grew faster than the statewide rate, and 14 of those counties saw their population increase by between 30% and 55%. Another 74 counties, largely ringing the highest-growth counties around metro areas, grew but at a rate slower than the state’s overall population growth rate. And 143 counties, many of them rural, lost population during that same time period.
Read the rest of this piece at The Bush Center.
Justin Coppedge is Senior Vice President, Strategy and Operations at Texas 2036, a nonpartisan policy organization focused on the future of Texas. He is also a 2024 Presidential Leadership Scholar.
Photo: Diego Ramirez via Pexels in Public Domain.
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