A just published report by Knock.com (see note) estimates that, at current prices, the median income household could require between 115 and 167 years to save for a down payment on the median priced new home in some major metropolitan areas.
A just published report by Knock.com (see note) estimates that, at current prices, the median income household would require 12 years to save for a down payment on the median priced new house. This shortest down payment saving period is in the Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Atlanta metropolitan areas.
Among the markets in which new construction house transactions were eight percent or more of sales, Metro Miami and metro Sacramento had the longest down payment saving periods, at 30 and 21 years respectively. In both of these markets, only 20% of households could qualify for a mortgage on the median priced new house, according to Knock.com.
However, among the markets where new housing construction was less than the eight percent level, housing was far more expensive. Knock.com estimates that the median income household would need to save 115 years in metro New York to save for a down payment on the median priced new house. Three coastal California metros would require more than 125 years of savings for a down payment.
- 127 years in metro San Jose (includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties).
- 153 years in metro Los Angeles (includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties)
- 167 years in metro San Francisco (includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa and Marin counties.
The irony is that San Francisco and San Jose metropolitan area residents have been reported to be migrating to the Sacramento area for more affordable housing.
Each of the four metros with the longest down payment saving time were rated severely unaffordable in Demographia International Housing Affordability: 2021, published by the Urban Reform Institute (US) and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (Canada). Among the markets in which new housing represented eight percent or more of housing transactions, Sacramento, Miami, Denver and Las Vegas were also severely unaffordable.
Note: Knock.com is a real estate firm established in 2015 by founding team members of Trulia.com Survey press release.
Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.
Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.
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