A Quarter Century of Net Domestic Migration

Between 2000 and 2024, there has been substantial movement between the states — net domestic migration. The source of the data is the Census Bureau population estimates program, which is generally considered the best data on the subject. Data is available for each of the more than 3,100 counties or county equivalents in the nation. There are other sources for net domestic migration data, such as the Internal Revenue Service, which report net domestic migration and the movement of adjusted gross income. The Census Bureau uses this data in its annual net domestic migration reports, but misses people who do not file income tax returns.

Moving to the South

Viewed over this time perspective, there has been considerable movement across the nation. America has been moving to the South. Since 2000, Florida has had the most net domestic migration, at 3.4 million. In the last year, however, Florida fell to 64,000 net domestic migrants, well below its annual average over the period of 142,000.

Texas has received the second most net domestic migrants, at 2.8 million. Like Florida, for example, it too had less net domestic migration in 2024 than its 2000 to 2024 average, with a decline of 32,000.

North Carolina ranked third, with net domestic migration of 82,000 in 2024, an increase over its 2000 to 2024 period estimate of 17,000.

Georgia added 1.035,000 net domestic migrants between 2000 and 2024, ranking fifth. Georgia added 18,000 fewer than its period average in 2024.

South Carolina added 1,240,000 million net domestic migrants over the period for a sixth ranking, while adding 66,000 in 2024, South Carolina’s 2024 net domestic migration figure was 25,000 more than its period average.

Tennessee added 803,000 net domestic migrants between 2000 and 2024. In 2024, Tennessee added 48,000, 15,000 more than its period average.

Thus, although migration to Texas and Florida slowed, the South had six of the seven largest net domestic migration flows over the past quarter century.

A strong performance, and somewhat surprising, was seen in Alabama, which gained 224,000, and accelerated in 2024 to 17,000 above its period average. Oklahoma added 171,000 and its 2024 figure was 7,000 over its average. Arkansas also gained strongly, at 155,000, with a 7,000 gain in 2024 relative to its annual average.

Only three Southern states lost net domestic migrants — Louisiana, Mississippi, and West Virginia. Louisiana had a huge loss, at 565,000, though improved its performance relative to average by 6,000 in the last year. Mississippi lost 5,000 net domestic migrants in 2024, yet performed 1,000 better than its quarter century average West Virginia had an average loss of 1,000 over the period, though recovered to a gain of 5,000 in 2024.

Other Strong Gains

Arizona was the only non-southern state to add more than 1,000,000 net domestic migrants over the period (1,482,000), though in 2024 fell below its annual average by 27,000. Nevada gained 706,000, though dropped in 2024 by 12,000 relative to its annual average.

Three states with strong net domestic migration over the period have sustained recent losses (Colorado, Washington and Oregon). Colorado gained 600,000 net domestic migrants over the period, though lost 20,000 in 2024 relative to its 25 year annual rate. Washington gained 574,000 net domestic migrants over the period, though lost 21,000 in 2024 relative to its annual rate. In Oregon, the gain over the period was 421,000, but the 2024 net domestic migration was 19,000 below its annual average.

Idaho has also done well, attracting 367,000 net domestic migrants since 2000. In 2024, Idaho replicated its rate, adding 1,000 more relative to its period average.

Largest Losses

New York had the largest net domestic migration loss, at 4,106,000 over the period. New York’s 121,000 loss in 2024 was 50,000 above its annual average.

California has been chasing New York for some time, losing 4,031,000 net domestic migrants since 2000. California lost 72,000 in 2024 relative to its annual average.

The third largest net domestic migration loss was in Illinois, which was down 1,975,000, yet had a gain of 26,000 in 2024 relative to its annual average.

New Jersey lost 1,160,000 net domestic migrants over the period, but gained 13,000 in 2024 relative to its annual average.

Michigan lost 889,000 net domestic migrants from 2000 to 2024, but gained 29,000 in 2024 relative to its annual average.

Ohio lost 628,000 net domestic migrants from 2000 to 2024 and gained 24,000 in 2024 in comparison with its annual average.

Massachusetts dropped over the period by 602,000 net domestic migrants, ranking 44th. Its 2024 loss of 27,000 was about 2,400 below the period average. Maryland ranked 42nd over the period, losing 398,000. The 2024 loss was 1,000 worse than the period average.

Pennsylvania lost 360,000 over the period, ranking 41st. Pennsylvania’s 2024 loss was better by 3,500 than its quarter century average. Connecticut fell over the 25 years by 317,000, to rank 40th. However, its 8,100 2024 gain in net domestic migrants was 2,400 higher than its annual rate over the period.

Figure 1 illustrates the contrast between the states with largest net domestic migration gains between 2020 and 2024. For example, with the top gain of 3.4 million, Florida gained 7.5 million more net domestic migrants over the 25-year period. Florida and Texas combined gained 14.3 million net domestic migrants compared to New York and California combined.

The table (link below) has full details, including the analyses above and the annual net domestic migration data for all states and the District of Columbia. Over the past few years, strong net domestic migration states, especially Colorado, Oregon and Washington have seen their net arrivals drop materially, as the California exodus has increasingly been to other states, where the financial gains from moving have increased (largely a result of better house prices). Moreover, Florida’s net domestic migration has fallen in the last year, while other southern states have significantly improved their performance, especially the “half-back” states of South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee have done better. Finally, three of the southern states that elitists love to hate have secured rankings of 7th (Alabama), 11th (Oklahoma) and 12th (Arkansas).

Download Table file (Excel spreadsheet). File opens in new tab or window.

Overall the basic patterns have remained remarkably the same, although some areas appear to be gaining momentum, and others losing slightly. But the future clearly belongs to the south and a handful of western states, although not those on the coast.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with Unleash Prosperity in Washington and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985), which was a predecessor agency to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro). Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

State Capitol of Alabama (Montgomery), 7th ranking state for net domestic migration in 2024. Photo: by Eric Hunt, via Wikimedia, under CC 3.0 License.